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Canada's ongoing efforts to spend heavily on defence procurement and nation-building infrastructure projects could spur a new era of productivity and fresh, international investment for Canada.
The Defence Industrial Strategy by the federal government aims to invest $180 billion in defence procurement and attract $290 billion in defence-related capital investment in Canada over the next 10 years, with an anticipated $125 billion downstream economic benefit by 2035.
Meanwhile, the federal government's Building Canada Strong initiative includes a list of major infrastructure projects and strategies it estimates will lead to 337,000 jobs, $192 billion in new government investment and $500 billion in future private sector investment.
A new era for productivity
Productivity and investment in Canada have lagged for decades, as Canada has over-relied on population growth and household consumption, at the expense of investment and greater efficiency in our market.
The cloud of uncertainty from the U.S. trade war against Canada has exacerbated the “wait-and-see" low-investment environment, while high debt levels, stagnant wages and high housing costs continue to drag down our households and economy.
Canada's highly-skilled, highly-educated workers earn low wages relative to peer countries, according to the OECD. This is leading to a brain drain to the U.S. and other markets, and a lower standard of living as productivity lags our G7 colleagues.
While not all of this can be addressed with federal investments, the focus is clearly on enhancing productivity – by moving people more efficiently via high-speed rail in the resource sector, by developing energy infrastructure, or by enabling better access to technology and resources.
A made-in-Canada approach to defence contracts will also create opportunities in logistics, warehousing and manufacturing due to increased contracting, fabrication and expansion by defence vendors. Increasing defence spending, whether to mollify NATO partners and the U.S. government, or for other reasons, is also likely to significantly impact the downstream real estate and business landscape.
Projects makes investing in Canada more attractive
It didn't take long for Canadian jet-maker Bombardier's stock price to fall on September 8 after the Trump administration threatened to halt the company's sales in the U.S. unless it moves production south of the border.
Ongoing challenges like that have required bold action within our borders. The federal government's planned defence and infrastructure investments will, hopefully, be paired with an expedited approach to approvals and financing. There's already a lot to like about Canada’s investment opportunities, and this capital infusion should help break down barriers for international capital inflow.
Already, Canada and the U.S. have differences in demographics, job markets and the investment environment. Canada has performed surprisingly well, as the U.S. has grappled with downtown decay and falling valuations for office assets in both major and secondary markets. Canada’s real estate markets for logistics, apartments and hospitality remain bright, spots despite the geopolitical challenges.
Canada has some key attributes that will help attract new capital from international sources, including political stability and lower levels of inflation. Moreover, the country has several of the world's top-ranked universities and a highly professional economy.
Relative to many U.S. cities, Canadian urban centres are enjoying better-performing office markets with healthier and more diverse downtown economies. Hundreds of millions of dollars of public and private capital will help usher in new opportunities and break down barriers.
Unique window of opportunity
Creativity sometimes emerges from periods of challenge and disruption. Canada is seeing a level of urgency that we haven't seen in decades. The conflict with the United States has been harmful in many areas: exports, inflation, borrowing costs and supply chains; but it also has the silver lining of creating a “now or never” sentiment around major projects, despite the cost and complexity.
Canada’s nation-building initiatives are critical, as each twist and turn in the trade war and in global geopolitics points to the need for independence, self-defence and trade diversification.
The planned major projects which, to be fair, are still mostly proposals, can create significant opportunities for communities, real estate investors and developers, trades, and exporters, while boosting the country’s overall productivity and attracting fresh investment into the national economy. This is a unique window of opportunity.











